How about one more option:
I take Mumbai Jammu flight, and send bike by train, so both will reach there on saturday. Based on situation there, I will either proceed to Srinagar - Leh, and if at all it is not possible, I will come to Manali and proceed to Leh. By This option, atleast the Srinagar option is open till last moment. Anyways my hotel bookings are not done, so that's no problem.
Has anyone done Jammu throgh Manali? It seems it is 402 km, so it should be doable in 2 days, with halt in between. What do you think of this way?
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