Petrol prices update thread

[slevynhawk]

Re: Petrol prices update thread

You're right mostly. A good discussion indeed.

In my opinion, solar won't get too famous, neither at home level, nor the macro. Its expensive, and with private companies cutting their share of profit, the subsidy is sacrificed anyhow, the common consumer doesn't get a deal worth the investment and risks. Plus, US of A has its own fears on letting India be a solar superpower, we all know how they interevene....

Solar is something we're looking as a solution in the long term. That's why the electric push. We know for sure that once fuel or electricity is under shortage, solar will help as a solid alternative, specially because we're in tropical areas with 90% clear sunlight time.

Yes solar is not too famous currently for household use but industries are adapting it as far as i believe and see/read. Prices of solar and wind energy are going south constantly if you see latest auctions rate by the government. Currently India is about to have capacity glut in solar energy as per latest report of economic times i read about 1-2 days ago. India is targeting to have 220 GW of capacity by 2022 so there is enough supply, its just need to meet the demand. Yes again solar energy is the focus of 15-20 years but its adaptation will lead to clean environment. All these things are happening at macro level and after only 5 years you can predict how they'll pan out..for corroborative evidence you can read this https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/bu...s-2583885.html

Right now, e vehicles are just an extra burden on our coal reserves. And that's another cause of worry. Given how energy needs are in the summers, at some places in india, we're looking at a really bad electricity situation...
So, a couple of hundreds or thousand customers aside, I really wouldn't like to see the masses purchasing e vehicles right now... for few more years at least.

For sure e-vehicles cannot be charged with conventional electricity generating methods otherwise it'll defeat the entire purpose of bringing e-vehicles..For bad electricity situation penetrating solar energy in households seems to be the only solution and awareness and optimum utilization from people is required, most of the people are unaware of where we are heading to on macro level with reckless use of resources, like water, electricity, etc..

Yes for next 5 years don't expect to see e-vehicles on road but as soon as its manufacturing cost and running cost go down people will switch to it as the cheaper alternative, but for that a robust infrastructure and reduced cost of charging, long mileage etc. is needed which are current challenges for its adoption. I believe bringing e-vehicles and making public adopt it will be more difficult for the government than implementing GST, since more people ride/drive than those come under GST ambit.

Inflation is a natural characteristic of a developing economy. I don't believe the government can reduce that a lot in long term. What we can do is control it mildly.

Agreed

You're right about imports. But, the economies of scale will go down. Raw material is just one cost. The entire refineries' infrastructure would be underutilised, thereby just making fuel expensive, even before taxes. Obviously, we won't be able to fire officers & engineers with permanent jobs, just because plants are underutilised. A lot of expenses will be full as before, even on reduced capacity.
So, it will take time before costs can be stabilised. In the meantime, costs will only flare up, to my best understanding, if demand goes down.

Your estimate of 10-20 years is justifiable I guess. In long term, oil is bound to go down, at least internationally. However, the underdeveloped economies of the world (african countries, etc.) MIGHT, in a period of 10-20 years, start to become developing countries... There, the demand of oil might increase again...
So, we can't predict the future accurately. Too many variables. But yes, the drift is right.
Let me know your thoughts.

Yes fixed cost will remain same upto a certain level of production but if production goes further down fixed cost can be reduced as well as fixed cost is linked to capacity range i believe, but the scenario where prices goes up because of less demand is not even thinkable for next 5-10 years, as adoption of e-vehicles will be slower and phase-wise..and if it happens then fuel could be used for other things in industries etc, beyond that they'd have to shut down extra capacity refineries and reduce the capacity by selling their assets as keeping the prices high to cover sunk cost which is not benefiting anyone doesn't seem to be the solution..sir the officers can be fired if there services are of no use as "ye sarkaari office thodi hai"..

Again all we are doing is sharing our "expert" insights for the future which no one can predict.. but nonetheless, this discussion is too tempting to write all this sitting in office..

[veryhiphop]

At Rs 87.77/litre, petrol price set to touch 90 mark in Pune amid uproar

While the price of petrol crossed the Rs 80 per litre mark in the capital on Saturday, in Pune, it further increased to Rs 87.77 per litre and diesel was sold at Rs 75.79 per litre.

In Delhi, it was for the first time ever as fuel prices continued a record-setting run precipitated by a fall in the value of the rupee and rising global crude oil prices. The price of diesel too rose to an all-time high.

On Saturday, petrol was priced at Rs 80.38/litre, up 39 paise from the day before, and diesel was Rs 72.51 per litre, up 44 paise, according to the price notification issued by state fuel retailers.

The costliest petrol being sold in India was in Mumbai, where it was priced at Rs 87.77 per litre.

Retail prices of fuels vary depending on local taxes, dealer commissions and the costs incurred in transporting them from refineries.

The rising price of fuel has triggered anger at the union government, which has said the trend was due to factors beyond its control. Opposition parties have called for a Bharat Bandh on Monday to protest against the rise.

In addition to being a sensitive political issue, rising fuel prices and the factors behind it threaten the government’s fiscal arithmetic. According to figures released by the Reserve Bank of India on Friday, India’s current account deficit expanded to 2.4% of GDP in the June quarter from 1.9% in the three-month period before due to the price of crude oil.

Higher prices of diesel, the fuel used in trucks, also threaten to push up inflation, which could in turn force the central bank to raise interest rates.

For now, the government has been non-committal on calls to cut taxes.

The Centre currently levies a total excise duty of Rs 19.48 per litre of petrol and Rs 15.33 per litre on diesel.

The Central government had raised excise duty on petrol by Rs 11.77 a litre and that on diesel by Rs 13.47 a litre in nine instalments between November 2014 and January 2016 to shore up finances as global oil prices fell, but then cut the tax just once in October last year, by Rs 2 a litre.


Source : https://www.hindustantimes.com/pune-...m0YQ2YoSK.html